By 2040, electric cars will account for 35% of sales

The electric car revolution could be more significant than previously estimated. According to analysts from Bloomerang New Energy Finance, a substantial drop in the price of electric motors is expected by 2020. Consequently, in most countries, it will become a more economical option compared to gasoline or diesel engines.

35% of sales by 2040 for electric vehicles

These economists estimate that sales of electric cars will reach 41 million by 2040, representing 35% of light commercial vehicle sales. This will be nearly 90 times more than the sales achieved in 2015, with only 462,000 sold. Even this figure was already favorable compared to 2014, showing a 60% growth in just one year. According to the latest forecast on February 25th, this immense change will impact not only the automotive market. Given that electric cars will constitute a third of the car fleet, 13 million barrels of empty oil per day will be replaced with 2700 TWh of electricity per day. This corresponds to 11% of electricity consumption in 2015.

Significant decrease in battery prices

Colin McKerracher, one of the leading analysts at Bloomerang New Energy Finance, acknowledged that the analysis of electric vehicle battery prices was central to this investigation. Indeed, the cost of lithium-ion batteries has already decreased by about 65% since 2010, reaching $350 per kWh last year. Along with his team, he estimates that this price could further drop to less than $120 by 2030. It will be a different story if new products are discovered in the meantime.

Less than 1% of global sales in 2015

In 2015, electric car sales accounted for less than 1% of global light commercial vehicle sales, which amounted to only 1.3 million cars. The electric car market has not yet taken off because only the curious dare to venture into it. It simply interests people who want to try new technologies, those concerned about their greenhouse gas emissions, or those looking to benefit from state subsidies as in Norway, China, and the Netherlands.